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Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-3 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 36%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 64%, SC Paderborn 07 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights