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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Karlsruher SC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat Karlsruher SC 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.81 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.12 / defence 1.05 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 39% | Draw 25% | Karlsruher SC 36%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 63%, Karlsruher SC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Nürnberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights