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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 0.96 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.77 / defence 1.00 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 31% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 40%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 69%, Holstein Kiel 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights