1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hertha BSC (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Nürnberg face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hertha BSC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 1W, Hertha BSC 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 64% versus Hertha BSC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 57% | Hertha BSC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.52 xG and Hertha BSC 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.225 / defence 1.170 | Hertha BSC attack 1.495 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. Hertha BSC's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.495 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 1. FC Nürnberg games / 44 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 29% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 49%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Hertha BSC 2.04. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | Hertha BSC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 29% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.52 / Hertha BSC 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.225 / def 1.170 | Hertha BSC attack 1.495 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Hertha BSC xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 29% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 3W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 1.23x the league average against Hertha BSC's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.50x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
29%
3.50
22%
4.55
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.56
2.04
Hertha BSC xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
13%
7.70
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
4%
26.95
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 2.04 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 18W 13D 13L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 23W 10D 11L from 44 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.80 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.86 PPG from 22 outings (12W 5D 5L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 13W 5D 4L from 22 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.59 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hertha BSC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 13D 13L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.86 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hertha BSC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hertha BSC won 0-3 on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
3
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, Hertha BSC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 64% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 46%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 50% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 64% of Hertha BSC's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.