1. FC Nürnberg 2-2 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Nürnberg face Hannover 96.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg welcome Hannover 96 to Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 6 August 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
1. FC Nürnberg at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hannover 96 — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Nürnberg at 1.00 PPG versus Hannover 96's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, Hannover 96 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 0–3 Hannover 96 — a Hannover 96 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hannover 96 trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 34% versus Hannover 96 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 43% | Hannover 96 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Nürnberg surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Hannover 96 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.58 xG and Hannover 96 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.931 / defence 0.904 | Hannover 96 attack 1.042 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.296. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 35 games and Hannover 96's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 46% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.19 | Draw 4.03 | Hannover 96 3.39. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% (last 10 home games) | Hannover 96 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (1. FC Nürnberg 35 games, Hannover 96 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 2 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 46% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.58 / Hannover 96 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.931 / def 0.904 | Hannover 96 attack 1.042 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Hannover 96 xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 2 Hannover 96.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 2) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 46% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 35 games and Hannover 96's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.03
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.80
1.22
Hannover 96 xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.22 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 10W 9D 16L from 35 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 14L across 35 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.11 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 7W 4D 6L from their last 17 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across their last 17 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.49 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 66%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs Hannover 96 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hannover 96 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.47 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Mar 2022, when 1. FC Nürnberg won Hannover 96 0-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
3
Draws
4
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Hannover 96 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 29%, Hannover 96 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 53% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 65% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 53% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 76% of Hannover 96's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.58 xG and Hannover 96 1.22 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Hannover 96 attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 46% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 30%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 43%, Hannover 96 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hannover 96's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.11 PPG, Hannover 96 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 2
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →