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Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.86 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.06 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 20%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Düsseldorf win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 66%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights