1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg welcome Energie Cottbus to Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Nürnberg — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Energie Cottbus have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Energie Cottbus away from home: 1W 3D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 0 for Energie Cottbus and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 1–1 Energie Cottbus — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Energie Cottbus in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 64% and Energie Cottbus 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 64% | Energie Cottbus 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.01 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.170 / defence 1.058 | Energie Cottbus attack 0.948 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.160. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 45 games and Energie Cottbus's last 11.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 56% | Draw 23% | Energie Cottbus 21%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.77 | Draw 4.44 | Energie Cottbus 4.73. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and Energie Cottbus's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% (last 10 home games) | Energie Cottbus 50% (last 6 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 56% | Draw 23% | Energie Cottbus 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.01 / Energie Cottbus 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.170 / def 1.058 | Energie Cottbus attack 0.948 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Energie Cottbus xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 56% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.17) and Energie Cottbus's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Energie Cottbus's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 45 games and Energie Cottbus's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.44
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.17
1.16
Energie Cottbus xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
3%
35.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.16 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 7W 3D 1L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Energie Cottbus's form line: 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, 1. FC Nürnberg are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Energie Cottbus.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 6 home games (4W 1D 1L).
On the road, Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 3D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 1.64 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Energie Cottbus in 73%.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Energie Cottbus
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs Energie Cottbus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Energie Cottbus
Blended
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 games (2.18 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Energie Cottbus away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 2.17 PPG; Energie Cottbus away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 1 H2H match in our data, going back to October 2026. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
0
Energie Cottbus
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, Energie Cottbus have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Energie Cottbus 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, Energie Cottbus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 67% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Energie Cottbus in 33%; Energie Cottbus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Energie Cottbus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 50% of Energie Cottbus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 67% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Energie Cottbus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 83% of Energie Cottbus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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