1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Nürnberg face Dynamo Dresden.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus Dynamo Dresden in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Nürnberg at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo Dresden have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dynamo Dresden have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.30 for Dynamo Dresden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and Dynamo Dresden's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 80% of Dynamo Dresden's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 Dynamo Dresden — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dynamo Dresden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 64% and Dynamo Dresden 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 57% | Dynamo Dresden 75%). Note also that Dynamo Dresden surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while 1. FC Nürnberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.97 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.124 / defence 0.912 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.978 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.306. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 62 games and Dynamo Dresden's last 28.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Dresden 21%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.82 | Draw 4.16 | Dynamo Dresden 4.76. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and Dynamo Dresden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo Dresden 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Dresden 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.97 / Dynamo Dresden 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.124 / def 0.912 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.978 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Dynamo Dresden xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 2 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 55% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.12) and Dynamo Dresden's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dynamo Dresden's attack (0.98x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 62 games and Dynamo Dresden's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.16
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.14
1.17
Dynamo Dresden xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
3%
34.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.17 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 10W 7D 11L from 28 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Dynamo Dresden, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 13L across 28 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.04 for Dynamo Dresden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 7W 4D 3L from their last 14 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — 1. FC Nürnberg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dynamo Dresden's away record stands at 3W 5D 6L across their last 14 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.61 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Dynamo Dresden in 75%.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
Dynamo Dresden
Current Season
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs Dynamo Dresden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
Dynamo Dresden
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.79 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Dynamo Dresden on 9 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dynamo Dresden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
1
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for 1. FC Nürnberg, 79% for Dynamo Dresden — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 79% for Dynamo Dresden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 79% of Dynamo Dresden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 79% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 86% of Dynamo Dresden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Dresden cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Dresden beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.97 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.17 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Dynamo Dresden outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Dresden 21%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo Dresden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 57%, Dynamo Dresden 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 PPG, Dynamo Dresden 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo Dresden win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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