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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.71 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.44 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.07 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Draw 23% | Arminia Bielefeld 33%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 58%, Arminia Bielefeld 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.25 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights