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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 35%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights