1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as 1. FC Magdeburg welcome SV Elversberg to Avnet-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 5W 0D 5L at Avnet-Arena — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at Avnet-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Elversberg away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SV Elversberg — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, SV Elversberg 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 5–2 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 61% versus SV Elversberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 66% | SV Elversberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 xG and SV Elversberg 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.045 / defence 1.393 | SV Elversberg attack 1.210 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.356. SV Elversberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 1. FC Magdeburg games / 41 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 20% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 60%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | SV Elversberg 1.67. The model has a clear lean to SV Elversberg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 30% | SV Elversberg 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 20% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 / SV Elversberg 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.045 / def 1.393 | SV Elversberg attack 1.210 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
2.29
SV Elversberg xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 4 SV Elversberg.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 20% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 2 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
20%
4.89
20%
5.12
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.56
2.29
SV Elversberg xG
4.89
20%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
10%
9.83
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
2%
48.00
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 2.29 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 15W 11D 15L from 41 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 10L across 41 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Magdeburg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 5W 7D 8L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 9W 7D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.88 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Elversberg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
SV Elversberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 11D 15L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.10 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when SV Elversberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when SV Elversberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, SV Elversberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 45% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 35%; 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 35% of games; SV Elversberg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SV Elversberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 50% of SV Elversberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 45% of SV Elversberg's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 xG and SV Elversberg 2.29 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg outscored their 2.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.39 against SV Elversberg attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 20% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 60%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 66%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.