1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 79% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Avnet Arena plays host to 1. FC Magdeburg versus SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Magdeburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Avnet Arena, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.10 for SSV Jahn Regensburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: 1. FC Magdeburg 2W, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 64% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 68% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 2.81 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.090 / defence 1.099 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.536 / defence 1.765. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.258. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.765 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 1. FC Magdeburg games / 29 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 79% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 6%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 16.67. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (79%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 79% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 79% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 2.81 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.090 / def 1.099 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.536 / def 1.765 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
0.74
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
50%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Magdeburg 3 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 79% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 2W | Draws 1 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 1.09x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.76x — combine the two and it projects 2.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.54x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
79%
1.26
14%
7.02
6%
15.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.55
0.74
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.02
14%
Draw
15.55
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
6%
16.54
Win to Nil
38%
2.64
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0.74 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 31 games, going 12W 11D 8L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 0.84 PPG from 31 outings (7W 5D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 3W 8D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 0.27 points per game from 15 outings (1W 1D 13L). That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.71 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 29%.
Last 31 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 12W 11D 8L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 5D 19L in their last 31 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.13 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Magdeburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 53%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 60% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 33% of games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 60% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-0 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 2.81 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.74 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.54 / defence 1.76, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 79% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 6%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 68%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.