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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel finished level at 3-3 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.62 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 27%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 61%, Holstein Kiel 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights