1. FC Magdeburg 3-3 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to Avnet-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg at Avnet-Arena this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.00 for Holstein Kiel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 53% and Holstein Kiel 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 61% | Holstein Kiel 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.62 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.008 / defence 1.088 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.789 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.326. Data: 49 1. FC Magdeburg games / 15 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 27%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Holstein Kiel 3.70. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Magdeburg 20% | Holstein Kiel 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.62 / Holstein Kiel 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.008 / def 1.088 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.789 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Holstein Kiel xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Magdeburg 3 - 3 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 49% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 2W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (1.01) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (0.79x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.05
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.75
1.14
Holstein Kiel xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.14 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 18W 12D 19L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 28L across 49 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Magdeburg by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Holstein Kiel heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 7W 7D 10L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.31 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 67%.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 10W 11D 28L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Holstein Kiel away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.17 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Magdeburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
From 7 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 4, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 42%, Holstein Kiel 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 67% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 79% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 67% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel finished level at 3-3 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.62 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 27%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 61%, Holstein Kiel 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.