1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as 1. FC Kaiserslautern welcome SSV Ulm 1846 to Fritz-Walter-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Kaiserslautern stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record at Fritz-Walter-Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have recorded 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 1W 5D 3L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
1. FC Kaiserslautern carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 0 for SSV Ulm 1846 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Kaiserslautern winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Kaiserslautern in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% versus SSV Ulm 1846 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 71% | SSV Ulm 1846 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.78 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.203 / defence 1.022 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.733 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.502. Data: 51 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 17 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 51% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | SSV Ulm 1846 4.55. 1. FC Kaiserslautern hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 70% | SSV Ulm 1846 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 51% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.78 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.203 / def 1.022 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.733 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2 - 1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 51% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1W | Draws 0 | SSV Ulm 1846 0W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Kaiserslautern's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against SSV Ulm 1846's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.71
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
2.90
1.12
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
4%
26.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.12 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 7W 5D 5L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Kaiserslautern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Ulm 1846's form line: 2W 8D 7L from 17 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Kaiserslautern are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Kaiserslautern come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 0.94 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 8D 7L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.50 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 2, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 75%, SSV Ulm 1846 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 38% for SSV Ulm 1846. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 in 38%; SSV Ulm 1846 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play SSV Ulm 1846?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 38% of SSV Ulm 1846's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Kaiserslautern edge out SSV Ulm 1846 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat SSV Ulm 1846 2-1 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.78 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.12 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 51% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 22%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 71%, SSV Ulm 1846 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Kaiserslautern arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.