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Shock result as Hertha BSC defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hertha BSC beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.63 xG and Hertha BSC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Hertha BSC attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 43% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 31%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 44%, Hertha BSC 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.26 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights