1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.

1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Historically, 1. FC Heidenheim have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.

The historical record gives 1. FC Heidenheim a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 64% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 66% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.96 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.972 / defence 1.133 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.992 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.158. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 1. FC Heidenheim games / 43 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 52% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.00. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.

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