Toulouse 6-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Toulouse welcome Amiens to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Amiens away from home this season: 0W 7D 3L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Toulouse have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Toulouse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Amiens in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Toulouse, 0 for Amiens and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 57% | Amiens 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 2.09 xG and Amiens 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.738 / defence 1.011 | Amiens attack 0.836 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.916. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.738 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Toulouse games / 28 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 68% | Draw 19% | Amiens 13%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Amiens 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 60% | Amiens 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 68% | Draw 19% | Amiens 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG Toulouse 2.09 / Amiens 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.738 / def 1.011 | Amiens attack 0.836 / def 1.233 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Amiens xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Amiens kick off?
Toulouse vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Amiens?
Toulouse 6 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Toulouse vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Amiens part of?
Toulouse vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 68% chance of winning, Amiens a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Toulouse and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Amiens in?
Toulouse (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Amiens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.74x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.13
13%
7.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.87
0.78
Amiens xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
7.90
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
2%
63.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.78 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Toulouse have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 16W 9D 3L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 8W 12D 8L from 28 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
Venue Form
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 2.31 PPG from 13 outings (9W 3D 1L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 1W 8D 4L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.29 scored and 0.93 conceded. Toulouse's scoring rate against Amiens's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Amiens in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Amiens in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 16W 9D 3L in their last 28 games (2.04 PPG), while Amiens have gone 8W 12D 8L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Amiens away?
Toulouse's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.31 PPG; Amiens away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Amiens in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Amiens?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Amiens have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Toulouse 6-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Amiens?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 54%, Amiens 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Toulouse) and 23% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Amiens in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Toulouse's games and 62% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Toulouse's recent games and 23% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Amiens tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Amiens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Amiens 6-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.09 xG and Amiens 0.78 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.74 / defence 1.01 against Amiens attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 68% | Draw 19% | Amiens 13%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 57%, Amiens 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.77 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.