Bastia 1-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Bastia welcome Dunkerque to Stade Armand-Césari. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Dunkerque's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bastia) versus 1.40 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Bastia's 30% rate and Dunkerque's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bastia, 1 for Dunkerque and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 46% versus Dunkerque 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 32% | Dunkerque 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.13 xG and Dunkerque 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.859 / defence 0.930 | Dunkerque attack 0.650 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.916. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Bastia games / 28 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 50% | Draw 32% | Dunkerque 18%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Dunkerque 5.56. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Dunkerque 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 50% | Draw 32% | Dunkerque 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 29% | xG Bastia 1.13 / Dunkerque 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.859 / def 0.930 | Dunkerque attack 0.650 / def 1.351 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Bastia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Dunkerque xG
29%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Dunkerque kick off?
Bastia vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Bastia 1 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Bastia vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Dunkerque part of?
Bastia vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 50% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Bastia and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.5%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.10
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.69
0.55
Dunkerque xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.46
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 10.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.0 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bastia and 0.55 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia's recent record stands at 7W 12D 9L from 28 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 14L across 28 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.18 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 3W 10D 0L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 3W 1D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.79 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 7W 12D 9L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Dunkerque away?
Bastia's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.46 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Bastia or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bastia's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
3
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Dunkerque have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Dunkerque 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Bastia and 46% for Dunkerque.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 38% of games; Dunkerque in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 38% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Bastia's recent games and 46% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Dunkerque 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Dunkerque 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.13 xG and Dunkerque 0.55 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Dunkerque attack 0.65 / defence 1.35, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 50% | Draw 32% | Dunkerque 18%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 32%, Dunkerque 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.18 PPG, Dunkerque 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.