Sochaux vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 1.50 PPG across 6 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Auguste Bonal, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste Bonal. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sochaux are significantly better at Stade Auguste Bonal than their overall form suggests.
Rodez (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sochaux, 1.70 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Sochaux are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Sochaux winning.
The historical record gives Sochaux a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 17% versus Rodez 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 17% | Rodez 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.19 xG and Rodez 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.697 / defence 0.989 | Rodez attack 1.211 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.178. Sochaux's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Sochaux games / 40 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 32% | Draw 26% | Rodez 42%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Rodez 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sochaux 0% | Rodez 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Auguste Bonal • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 32% | Draw 26% | Rodez 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Sochaux 1.19 / Rodez 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.697 / def 0.989 | Rodez attack 1.211 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Rodez (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Rodez xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Rodez kick off?
Sochaux vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Stade Auguste Bonal.
Where is Sochaux vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Rodez part of?
Sochaux vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 32% chance of winning, Rodez a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sochaux and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Sochaux 4W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in?
Sochaux (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Rodez (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sochaux's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.21x) against Sochaux's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.78
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.60
1.41
Rodez xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.41 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sochaux's recent record stands at 2W 3D 1L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Sochaux against 1.17 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Sochaux are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rodez's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.83 scored and 2.00 conceded. Rodez's attacking output running into Sochaux's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Rodez in 67%.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Rodez have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Rodez away?
Sochaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Rodez away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Rodez in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sochaux go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sochaux
0
Draws
0
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 4, Rodez have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Rodez 1-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Rodez?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Sochaux) and 67% (Rodez) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sochaux) and 67% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sochaux have failed to score in 33% of games; Rodez in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sochaux's recent matches and 67% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sochaux's recent games and 67% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Rodez tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.