Sochaux vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste Bonal, Sochaux have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sochaux, 1.00 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Sochaux are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Sochaux winning.
The historical record gives Sochaux a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 46% versus Rodez 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 27% | Rodez 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.21 xG and Rodez 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.796 / defence 1.187 | Rodez attack 1.001 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Sochaux's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Sochaux games / 45 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 28% | Draw 25% | Rodez 47%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 2.13. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sochaux 40% | Rodez 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Auguste Bonal • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 28% | Draw 25% | Rodez 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Sochaux 1.21 / Rodez 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.796 / def 1.187 | Rodez attack 1.001 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Rodez (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Rodez xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Rodez kick off?
Sochaux vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Stade Auguste Bonal.
Where is Sochaux vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Rodez part of?
Sochaux vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 28% chance of winning, Rodez a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sochaux and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Sochaux 4W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in?
Sochaux (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sochaux's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.00x) against Sochaux's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
28%
3.51
25%
4.05
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.82
1.61
Rodez xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.61 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sochaux's recent record stands at 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 6L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sochaux against 1.18 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.55 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Rodez have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Rodez away?
Sochaux's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.40 PPG; Rodez away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rodez in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sochaux go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sochaux
0
Draws
0
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 4, Rodez have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Rodez 1-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Rodez?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 40%, Rodez 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sochaux) and 60% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rodez in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sochaux's recent matches and 60% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sochaux's recent games and 60% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Rodez tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rodez in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.