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Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 6-0 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat PAU 6-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.55 xG and PAU 1.91 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.20 / defence 1.34 against PAU attack 1.16 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 22% | PAU 46%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 58%, PAU 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

PAU's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.11 PPG, PAU 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights