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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Nancy 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Nancy 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 2.41 xG and Nancy 1.25 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.47 / defence 1.16 against Nancy attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 63% | Draw 18% | Nancy 18%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 71%, Nancy 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Nancy's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights