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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Guingamp encounter.

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Match Analysis

Saint Etienne host Guingamp at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Saint Etienne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.

Guingamp — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Saint Etienne have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 5, Guingamp 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Saint Etienne winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Saint Etienne sit 3rd on 60 points, 8 places and 20 points ahead of Guingamp in 11th.

On home turf, Saint Etienne's Ligue 2 record reads 11W 2D 4L this term. Away from home, Guingamp have posted 4W 5D 8L in Ligue 2 this season. Saint Etienne: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading Patterns

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 44% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Guingamp 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.75 xG and Guingamp 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.212 / defence 0.911 | Guingamp attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Saint Etienne games / 34 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 22%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 4.55. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 20% | Guingamp 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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