🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Saint Etienne and Grenoble share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne and Grenoble finished level at 1-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.90 xG and Grenoble 1.08 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Grenoble attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 56% | Draw 22% | Grenoble 21%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Grenoble 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Grenoble's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.00 PPG, Grenoble 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights