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Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Dunkerque 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.93 xG and Dunkerque 1.08 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against Dunkerque attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 19%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.33 PPG, Dunkerque 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights