Saint Etienne vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Boulogne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Boulogne make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Boulogne (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Saint Etienne's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Boulogne's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Boulogne in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Boulogne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Boulogne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Boulogne half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 46% versus Boulogne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Boulogne 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.38 xG and Boulogne 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.455 / defence 0.719 | Boulogne attack 0.786 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.336. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 1.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Boulogne's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Saint Etienne games / 43 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 20%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Boulogne 5.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 30% | Boulogne 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 51% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Saint Etienne 1.38 / Boulogne 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.455 / def 0.719 | Boulogne attack 0.786 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Boulogne xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Boulogne kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Boulogne part of?
Saint Etienne vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 51% chance of winning, Boulogne a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Saint Etienne and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Boulogne in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.79x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.43
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.13
0.76
Boulogne xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.76 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 23W 8D 12L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne's form line: 10W 15D 18L from 43 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 2.09 PPG from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 6W 9D 7L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.93 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Boulogne away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.09 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Boulogne in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Boulogne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-1 Boulogne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 46%, Boulogne 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Saint Etienne) and 23% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Boulogne in 36%; Boulogne in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 36% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 23% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Boulogne tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.