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Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Annecy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Annecy 4-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.55 xG and Annecy 1.15 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Annecy attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 27% | Annecy 27%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Annecy 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Annecy's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights