Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Rodez welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul-Lignon: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.40 (RED Star FC 93). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rodez, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 69% and RED Star FC 93 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 53% | RED Star FC 93 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.35 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.011 / defence 1.105 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.224 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. RED Star FC 93 have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Rodez games / 44 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 28% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 49%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | RED Star FC 93 2.04. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | RED Star FC 93 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 28% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Rodez 1.35 / RED Star FC 93 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.011 / def 1.105 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.224 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.84
RED Star FC 93 xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 January 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 28% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rodez and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 3 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rodez's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
28%
3.54
23%
4.37
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.19
1.84
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
4%
22.22
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rodez and 1.84 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 20W 14D 11L from 45 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 13L across 45 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.64 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 10W 7D 5L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 12W 4D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.36 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 14D 11L in their last 45 games (1.64 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.68 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Rodez or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rodez
3
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
From 5 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when RED Star FC 93 2-3 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 68%, RED Star FC 93 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 54% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Rodez's games and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rodez's recent games and 54% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.