Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Rodez welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul-Lignon: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. RED Star FC 93's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Rodez's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rodez, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 70% and RED Star FC 93 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | RED Star FC 93 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.36 xG and RED Star FC 93 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.053 / defence 1.325 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.240 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.336. RED Star FC 93 have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Rodez games / 42 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 23% | Draw 21% | RED Star FC 93 56%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | RED Star FC 93 1.79. The model has a clear lean to RED Star FC 93 (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | RED Star FC 93 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 23% | Draw 21% | RED Star FC 93 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Rodez 1.36 / RED Star FC 93 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.053 / def 1.325 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.240 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
2.20
RED Star FC 93 xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 January 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 23% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rodez and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 3 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rodez's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
23%
4.38
21%
4.71
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.56
2.20
RED Star FC 93 xG
4.38
23%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
11%
8.99
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
3%
39.39
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Rodez and 2.20 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 18W 14D 11L from 43 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 11L across 43 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.58 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 12W 4D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.37 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 14D 11L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.62 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Rodez or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rodez
3
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
From 5 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when RED Star FC 93 2-3 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 71%, RED Star FC 93 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rodez) and 52% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rodez's games and 48% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rodez's recent games and 52% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.