Rodez vs PAU – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out PAU 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 2.33 xG and PAU 1.43 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PAU landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.37 / defence 1.41 against PAU attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 58% | Draw 20% | PAU 23%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 64%, PAU 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

PAU's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.40 PPG, PAU 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights