Rodez vs PAU – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.37x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.96x) against Rodez's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
58%
1.74
20%
5.12
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.76
1.43
PAU xG
1.74
58%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
10%
10.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
2%
44.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Rodez and 1.43 for PAU, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.