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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Montpellier 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.11 xG and Montpellier 0.77 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Montpellier attack 0.69 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 43% | Draw 31% | Montpellier 25%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 58%, Montpellier 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Montpellier's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.26 PPG, Montpellier 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights