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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rodez and Le Mans share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez and Le Mans finished level at 1-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.36 xG and Le Mans 1.24 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Le Mans attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 39% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 34%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 50%, Le Mans 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Le Mans's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights