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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Guingamp 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Guingamp 2-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.33 xG and Guingamp 1.33 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Guingamp attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 37% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 37%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 56%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.14 PPG, Guingamp 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights