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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Rodez at 37%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rodez vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Rodez's 0 victories.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.

It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Rodez in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 68% and Guingamp 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 56% | Guingamp 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.33 xG and Guingamp 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.945 / defence 0.974 | Guingamp attack 1.156 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.178. Data: 50 Rodez games / 50 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rodez 37% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 37%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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