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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Grenoble 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.25 xG and Grenoble 0.90 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Grenoble attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 43% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 25%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 56%, Grenoble 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Grenoble's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.29 PPG, Grenoble 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights