Rodez 1-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.20 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rodez, 2 for Dunkerque and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 70% and Dunkerque 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Dunkerque 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.79 xG and Dunkerque 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.059 / defence 1.314 | Dunkerque attack 1.116 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.341. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Rodez games / 44 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 42%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Dunkerque 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Dunkerque 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Rodez 1.79 / Dunkerque 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.059 / def 1.314 | Dunkerque attack 1.116 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Dunkerque xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Dunkerque kick off?
Rodez vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Rodez 1 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Rodez vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Dunkerque part of?
Rodez vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 35% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Rodez and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
Record (8 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 4 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.06x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
35%
2.82
22%
4.51
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.76
1.97
Dunkerque xG
2.82
35%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
14%
7.15
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
5%
20.18
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Rodez and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rodez and 1.97 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 19W 14D 11L from 44 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 17L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.61 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.52 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Dunkerque in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 19W 14D 11L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Dunkerque away?
Rodez's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.62 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
From 9 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Dunkerque have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Rodez 1-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Dunkerque?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rodez at 71%, Dunkerque at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rodez) and 67% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rodez's games and 67% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Rodez's matches and 67% of Dunkerque's.
Do Rodez and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Dunkerque 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.79 xG and Dunkerque 1.97 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Dunkerque attack 1.12 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 35% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 42%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 54%, Dunkerque 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Dunkerque's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.61 PPG, Dunkerque 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.