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Dominant Rodez run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dunkerque.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Dunkerque 5-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.10 xG and Dunkerque 1.63 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Dunkerque attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 50%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 62%, Dunkerque 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Dunkerque 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights