🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Dunkerque at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Dunkerque encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Dunkerque have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Dunkerque's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Rodez's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Rodez, 2 for Dunkerque and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Dunkerque winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Rodez in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Dunkerque in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 65% versus Dunkerque 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 62% | Dunkerque 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.10 xG and Dunkerque 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.964 / defence 1.304 | Dunkerque attack 1.161 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.075. Data: 63 Rodez games / 63 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rodez 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 50%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 2.00. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights