Rodez vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Boulogne (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Rodez, 1.20 for Boulogne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rodez 2W, Boulogne 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 67% versus Boulogne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Boulogne 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.95 xG and Boulogne 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.011 / defence 1.105 | Boulogne attack 0.673 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Boulogne's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Rodez games / 45 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 33% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 36%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Boulogne 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boulogne as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Boulogne 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 33% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Rodez 0.95 / Boulogne 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.011 / def 1.105 | Boulogne attack 0.673 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Boulogne xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Boulogne kick off?
Rodez vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Boulogne part of?
Rodez vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 33% chance of winning, Boulogne a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Rodez and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Rodez and Boulogne in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Boulogne (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rodez's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.67x) against Rodez's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.19
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.96
1.01
Boulogne xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Rodez and 1.01 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 20W 14D 12L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne's form line: 11W 16D 19L from 46 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 6W 9D 7L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.96 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 14D 12L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 11W 16D 19L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Boulogne away?
Rodez's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.68 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Rodez or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Boulogne in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rodez
0
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Boulogne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Boulogne?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 68%, Boulogne 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 23% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 36%; Boulogne in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Rodez's recent matches and 36% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rodez's recent games and 23% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Boulogne tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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