Rodez vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Boulogne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Boulogne (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boulogne away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Rodez's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rodez 2W, Boulogne 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 73% and Boulogne 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Boulogne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.14 xG and Boulogne 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.210 / defence 1.270 | Boulogne attack 0.650 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Boulogne's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Rodez games / 41 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 37% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 32%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Boulogne 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Boulogne 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 37% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Rodez 1.14 / Boulogne 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.210 / def 1.270 | Boulogne attack 0.650 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Rodez (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Boulogne xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Boulogne kick off?
Rodez vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Boulogne part of?
Rodez vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 37% chance of winning, Boulogne a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rodez and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Rodez and Boulogne in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rodez's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.65x) against Rodez's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.19
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.16
1.03
Boulogne xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rodez and 1.03 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 18W 14D 9L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boulogne's form line: 9W 14D 18L from 41 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 5W 8D 7L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.90 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 14D 9L in their last 41 games (1.66 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 14D 18L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Boulogne away?
Rodez's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.70 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rodez
0
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Boulogne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Boulogne?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 75%, Boulogne 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 25% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 35%; Boulogne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Boulogne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rodez's games and 35% of Boulogne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rodez's recent games and 25% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Boulogne tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.