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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Boulogne 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Boulogne 1-0 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.34 xG and Boulogne 0.73 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Boulogne attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 51% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 20%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 25%, Boulogne 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Boulogne's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 0.75 PPG, Boulogne 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights