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Bastia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rodez.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia beat Rodez 0-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.50 xG and Bastia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bastia outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.11 / defence 1.34 against Bastia attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 45% | Draw 26% | Bastia 30%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 63%, Bastia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Bastia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.36 PPG, Bastia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights