Rodez 0-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Rodez 3W, Bastia 1W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 66% versus Bastia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 63% | Bastia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.50 xG and Bastia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.107 / defence 1.336 | Bastia attack 0.873 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.008. Data: 59 Rodez games / 59 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 26% | Bastia 30%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Bastia 3.33. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 26% | Bastia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Rodez 1.50 / Bastia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.107 / def 1.336 | Bastia attack 0.873 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bastia xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Bastia kick off?
Rodez vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Rodez 0 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Rodez vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Bastia part of?
Rodez vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 45% chance of winning, Bastia a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rodez and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
Record (7 meetings): Rodez 3W | Draws 3 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Rodez and Bastia in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rodez's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.87x) against Rodez's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.91
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.67
1.18
Bastia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rodez and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Rodez and 1.18 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 17D 21L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 19W 21D 19L from 59 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Rodez against 1.32 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (13W 8D 8L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 7W 9D 13L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Bastia in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 21W 17D 21L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Bastia have gone 19W 21D 19L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Bastia away?
Rodez's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.62 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Rodez or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, Bastia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Bastia?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 69%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Rodez) and 38% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Rodez's games and 48% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Rodez's recent games and 38% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Bastia tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bastia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Rodez 0-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.50 xG and Bastia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bastia outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.11 / defence 1.34 against Bastia attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 45% | Draw 26% | Bastia 30%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 63%, Bastia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.36 PPG, Bastia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.