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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reims cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat PAU 5-3 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.62 xG and PAU 1.16 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against PAU attack 1.00 / defence 1.41, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 46% | Draw 28% | PAU 25%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, PAU 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.28 PPG, PAU 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights