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Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.44 xG and Estac Troyes 1.52 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Estac Troyes attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 36% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 40%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights