Reims 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Auguste-Delaune to take on Reims. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Estac Troyes — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Reims, 2 for Estac Troyes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 4–0 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Estac Troyes 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 46% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.44 xG and Estac Troyes 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.130 / defence 1.148 | Estac Troyes attack 1.031 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.285. Data: 10 Reims games / 44 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 40%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 40% | Estac Troyes 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Reims 1.44 / Estac Troyes 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.130 / def 1.148 | Estac Troyes attack 1.031 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Estac Troyes xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Reims vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Reims 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Reims vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Estac Troyes part of?
Reims vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 36% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Reims and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Estac Troyes?
Record (4 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 2W.
What form are Reims and Estac Troyes in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.09
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Reims xG
Total xG
2.96
1.52
Estac Troyes xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Reims and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Reims and 1.52 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims's recent record stands at 12W 12D 20L from 44 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 17L across 44 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estac Troyes by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reims have managed 7W 4D 10L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 7W 3D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.27 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 30%.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 20W 7D 17L in their last 44 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Estac Troyes away?
Reims's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.19 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Reims or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Reims won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reims
2
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 57%, Estac Troyes 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Reims) and 52% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 33%; Reims have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Reims's recent matches and 38% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Reims's recent games and 52% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.44 xG and Estac Troyes 1.52 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Estac Troyes attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 36% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 40%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.