RED Star FC 93 1-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees PAU travel to Stade de Paris to take on RED Star FC 93. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 January 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 3W 2D 3L at Stade de Paris — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, RED Star FC 93 have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for RED Star FC 93, 1 for PAU and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 1–4 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 44% versus PAU 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | PAU 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.13 xG and PAU 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.857 / defence 1.266 | PAU attack 0.805 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.028. Data: 18 RED Star FC 93 games / 56 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 30% | PAU 33%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | PAU 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 38% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 30% | PAU 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.13 / PAU 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.857 / def 1.266 | PAU attack 0.805 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
PAU xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs PAU kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 3 PAU.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance of winning, PAU a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. PAU (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.86) and PAU's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.28
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.18
1.05
PAU xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.05 for PAU, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 4D 8L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.22 PPG, PAU on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.06 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: PAU in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while PAU have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or PAU away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.38 PPG; PAU away: 0.62 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, PAU in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and PAU runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting PAU specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, PAU have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 38%, PAU 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (RED Star FC 93) and 38% (PAU).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 38% of games; PAU in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 38% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 38% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and PAU tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAU in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat RED Star FC 93 1-3 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.13 xG and PAU 1.05 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PAU outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against PAU attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 30% | PAU 33%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, PAU 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.22 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.