RED Star FC 93 1-3 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Stade de Paris to face RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
RED Star FC 93's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games (1.17 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Paris FC arrive in superior form — a 0.53 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.17) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 67% | Paris FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.86 xG and Paris FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.696 / defence 1.257 | Paris FC attack 1.042 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.112. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 RED Star FC 93 games / 44 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 22% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 51%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Paris FC 1.96. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 50% | Paris FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 22% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.86 / Paris FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.696 / def 1.257 | Paris FC attack 1.042 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Paris FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 3 Paris FC.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 22% chance of winning, Paris FC a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.70x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.04x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
22%
4.52
27%
3.75
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.31
1.46
Paris FC xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
5%
19.39
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.46 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of RED Star FC 93 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Have RED Star FC 93 or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Paris FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC?
From 2 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Paris FC 4-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 50%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (RED Star FC 93) and 50% (Paris FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 50%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 50% of Paris FC's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Paris FC tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat RED Star FC 93 1-3 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.86 xG and Paris FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.70 / defence 1.26 against Paris FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 22% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 51%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 67%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Paris FC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. RED Star FC 93 shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.