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RED Star FC 93 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.97 xG and Guingamp 1.73 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.85 / defence 1.31 against Guingamp attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 21% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 55%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a RED Star FC 93 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, Guingamp 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with RED Star FC 93 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights